Tier 1 Ocean / Atmosphere seasonal forecast run NASA GMAO mar 2006
GMAO tier 1 Temp
 GMAO tier 1 Temp GMAO tier 1 Temp GMAO tier 1 Temp
RAW
 RAW PPN Tier 1 coupled Ocean/Atmosphere
 PPN Tier 1 coupled Ocean/Atmosphere
Calibrated
 Calibrated ppn
 ppn
The top is the anomaly from the 18 member ensemble mean. Anomalies are referenced to the 1993-2001 model climatology. PPN Units are mm/day. Shaded values represent significance at the 95% confidence level of a two sided t-test.

The middle is the categorical forecast is based on the individual ensemble members departure from the model climatology. The three categories are above (red), normal (gray), and below (blue). The category holding the most ensemble members iscolored for each grid cell. The number is percentage of the ensemble members that fall into this category.

The lower shows calibrated categorical forecast is based on the ensemble mean of the forecast and reflects the past performance of the Atmospheric Model. Red is above normal, gray is normal and blue is below normal. Areas with no forecast skill are white. Numbers represent probability in percent that forecast will verify.